A UCLA team claims it can predict earthquakes months in advance falling within a several month period.
Earthquakes can be predicted months in advance
Major earthquakes can be predicted months in advance, argues UCLA seismologist and mathematical geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok.
"Earthquake prediction is called the Holy Grail of earthquake science, and has been considered impossible by many scientists," said Keilis-Borok, a professor in residence in UCLA's Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics and department of earth and space sciences. "It is not impossible."
"We have made a major breakthrough, discovering the possibility of making predictions months ahead of time, instead of years, as in previously known methods," Keilis-Borok said. "This discovery was not generated by an instant inspiration, but culminates 20 years of multinational, interdisciplinary collaboration by a team of scientists from Russia, the United States, Western Europe, Japan and Canada."
The team includes experts in pattern recognition, geodynamics, seismology, chaos theory, statistical physics and public safety. They have developed algorithms to detect precursory earthquake patterns.
In June of 2003, this team predicted an earthquake of magnitude 6.4 or higher would strike within nine months in a 310-mile region of Central California whose southern part includes San Simeon, where a magnitude 6.5 earthquake struck on Dec. 22.
In July of 2003, the team predicted an earthquake in Japan of magnitude 7 or higher by Dec. 28, 2003, in a region that includes Hokkaido. A magnitude 8.1 earthquake struck Hokkaido on Sept. 25, 2003.
Previously, the team made "intermediate-term" predictions, years in advance. The 1994 Northridge earthquake struck 21 days after an 18-month period when the team predicted that an earthquake of magnitude 6.6 or more would strike within 120 miles from the epicenter of the 1992 Landers earthquake — an area that includes Northridge. The magnitude 6.8 Northridge earthquake caused some $30 billion in damage. The 1989 magnitude 7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake fulfilled a five-year forecast the team issued in 1986.
Keilis-Borok's team now predicts an earthquake of at least magnitude 6.4 by Sept. 5, 2004, in a region that includes the southeastern portion of the Mojave Desert, and an area south of it.
If this technique continues to return correct answers how will Los Angeles or Bay Area residents respond if they are eventually told that a really big quake is coming their way?
Kellis-Borok apparently took on earthquake prediction to give him something worthwhile to do in his old age. Incredible.
Still, not all seismologists are convinced. "Application of nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory is often counter-intuitive," Keilis-Borok said, "so acceptance by some research teams will take time. Other teams, however, accepted it easily."
Keilis-Borok, 82, has been working on earthquake prediction for more than 20 years. A mathematical geophysicist, he was the leading seismologist in Russia for decades, said his UCLA colleague John Vidale, who calls Keilis-Borok the world's leading scientist in the art of earthquake prediction. Keilis-Borok is a member of the National Academy of Sciences, and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, as well as the Russian Academy of Sciences, and the European, Austrian and Pontifical academies of science. He founded Moscow's International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, and joined UCLA's faculty in 1999.
His research team has started experiments in advance prediction of destructive earthquakes in Southern California, Central California, Japan, Israel and neighboring countries, and plans to expand prediction to other regions.
Parenthetically, this report demonstrates the potential of life extension. Kellis-Borok's mind is probably aging more slowly than the average mind. Imagine what top scientists would accomplish if the aging of their minds could be delayed or avoided.
By Randall Parker at 2004 January 11 09:46 AM Dangers Natural General | TrackBackDoes the article mention any false positives in the predicted quakes? Can it predict any type of quake, or does it rely upon specific physical models that are unable to describe all earthquakes?
More importantly than how residents will react, is it possible to devise interventions to release pressure before a really big quake happens by stimulating a smaller quake? Kind of like how they deal with avalanches in some places by causing a small one when nobody is around instead of allowing a really big one to land on people.
You can learn a great deal more about these predictions (including prediction erros) by going t the ucla site and doing a search for "earthquake predictions". I found both the articles there and the related links to be intriguing.
Did you recently say on the news we are to expect an earthquake sept 4th in the Mojave Desert a 7 pointer?
i do believe that is possible for cientists to go further than that. The surprise of a quake is what scare me most.If if is possible to let us know before , it will make much easy when strike. SO I CAN PREDICT THAT A BIGGER QUAKE WILL HIT THE DESERT AREA BEFORE DECEMBER 2005.You see...i also can just predict. By the way i 'm not a cientist....So to this ucla team , i just have a few questions.... WHAT FAULT IS GOING TO BREAK ? HOW LONG WILL THE SHAKE LAST ? HOW BIG WILL THE QUAKE BE??? WHAT TIME OF THE DAY/NIGHT ????????????? I'M SURE , YOU DO NOT HAVE THIS ANSWERS DO YOU?
Is it possible that a major Los Angeles earthquake
AND an earthquake in Jerusalem (Mt. Olives splitting in the midst)
could occur at the same time?
According to...It could happen on April 22, 2004
(...the last backside Thunder of Revelations Chapter 5 and Revelations 10:3&4)
If it happens...move out of the USA because things can only get worse,
especially in America.
...it's the start of the second half of the tribulation period for another 21 months.
There is no need to worry about the Apocalypse because Angel and Buffy will stop it. Plus, now that Buffy has turned so many women into Vampire Slayers there are lots of superheroes running around saving us from every possible Apocalypse that follows after an earthquake.
Oops...I forgot about the Trumpets
which means another 50 days added
to the Original Sabbath...which lands
on June 4th. Mark your calendar!
I thought the trumpets meant there would be another six weeks of spring.
;-)
you won't be laughing on June 4th
If there is this possible Mojave desert quake of 6.4 or greater...could this movement cause the ancient Amboy or Pisgah volcanos to erupt? Might make traveling the I-40 a bit difficult! Linda in Torrance, Ca.
So are you saying that this earthquake thing is supposed to happen on June 4th? What evidence do you have for this? (it doesn't show the whole message)~Ami
Nobody knows...I was just counting 50 days from
the first sabbath after the passover...the 50 days meaning the 7th
Trumpet that blew on Pentecost., etc.
The thing is, there are MANY types that speak of the
Seventh Trumpet...
(so I take my prediction back....I was overzealous when I saw the type...)
Fifty days is the culmination of the Seven Sabbaths and the
Messiah returns with destruction at His Coming.
The Seventh Seal lines up with the Seventh Trumpet, but as I say,
there are many types and shadows of His return and those Sevens.
And Pentecost falls on a different day every year.
so, the main thing is to be ready...
There was an earthquake on Easter morning and I
believe there will be another earthquake in the
City of Angels (Los Angeles) on Easter morning,
March 27, 2005.
I wouldn't go to Disneyland or be anywhere
near it on that day.
Speaking of the Trumpets blowing,
The Feast of the Trumpets according
to the Jewish Calendar
will start on the evening of
September 14, 2004.
5.9 2004/09/28 10:15:24 35.815N 120.374W 7.9 11 km ( 7 mi) SSE of Parkfield, CA
Here's a mag six in central california. Who called that one?
Parkfield was 16 years overdue. Historically, this segment of the San Andreas Fault produces a MG6.0 quake every 22 years. Last quake was 1966. Interesting that even though it was not "on schedule", it did not produce a larger quake. Nor did it have the typical foreshock 17 minutes before. Otherwise, Parkfield is very predictable.
William Branham was in Los Angeles for the International
Convention of the Full Gospel Businessmen in April, 1965,
He asked his son, Billy Paul Branham, "Where are you standing?"
"In front of the May Company, downtown Los Angeles," replied Billy.
At this Brother Branham made a prophetic statement"
"Billy," he said, "I may not be here, but you won't
be an old man until sharks will swim right where you are standing"
(Billy Paul Branham was born on September 13, 1935.)
Billy Graham is the type of that Angel
that goes down to Sodom (Los Angeles)
(Genesis chapter 19)
It's his last crusade...
Will there be an earthquake there
right after he leaves?
November 22, 2004?
I belive that california will sink into the ocean before the lord come back to earth? He clean this country before that jewish women comes to this country for her refuge?
What do you mean?
What Jewish women?
As it was in the days of Lot AND Noah...
Noah saw that sign of the closed door for seven days
and then the destruction came.
Did that door close when the Angel left Sodom?
These are Scriptural signs...
Dear Readers...
I just came across this following Quote this morning
taken from the last service that Billy Graham had on November 21, 2004...
from the Billy Graham website:
(I wouldn't be in L.A. for any reason...tell your loved ones to get out...)
http://www.billygraham.org/News_Article.asp?ArticleID=90
____________________________________________________________
Rejoicing in Heaven
On the final night of the Greater Los Angeles Crusade—during what could have been his final appearance in a large open-air stadium—Billy Graham spoke on the second coming of Jesus Christ.
“History’s going to repeat itself,” said Graham, citing Luke 17:27-30. “Those things that were happening in Sodom are going to happen here.”
Graham shared about Lot’s wife who, having fled from Sodom, looked back and was turned into a pillar of salt. “Her heart was still in Sodom,” said Graham. “Almost saved, but not quite.”
You know, there's some very interesting things to ponder re: December 21...
1. Freedom of religion was established there at Plymouth Rock on this day.
2. The Sun is born again on this day...and the wrath of Winter begins.
3. Constantine's pagan feast to Pergamos was at that time: Winter Solstice.
4. Organized religion and freedom of religion both established on that date.
5. Did Titus destroy Jerusalem in A.D. 70 on that day?
6. Why is this day of December 21 prophesied to be the end of the world
by many people?
7. What does this date have to do with Los Angeles?
8. Is it a junction time? Known only to those who recognize those
Scriptural junctions? The prophet Daniel said,..." the wise shall know."
By the way, does anyone know where Billy Graham
is today or if and what day he left Pasadena
after his last crusade there?
I have nothing to say but I would want you to send us these documents in french version Exposé des sept Ages de lEglise et révélation des sept sceaux at this adress:FALSH YAOUNDE BP 755 CAMEROUN GOD bless YOU
April 2
It's the Original Easter
which was April 16th A.D. 30
If not this year (April 16)
....next year!
And Easter DOES fall on April the 16th next year
Well .. In the last week there have been...
2.1 2005/09/29 18:18:03 35.617 -121.210 8.8 4 km ( 2 mi) SSW of San Simeon, CA
2.0 2005/09/30 06:36:22 35.564 -120.792 5.3 8 km ( 5 mi) W of Templeton, CA
2.9 2005/10/01 11:12:02 35.652 -121.087 1.2 9 km ( 6 mi) E of San Simeon, CA
2.2 2005/10/01 13:08:37 36.025 -120.591 5.4 20 km ( 12 mi) NW of Parkfield, CA
3.2 2005/10/01 09:49:36 35.569 -120.830 5.9 11 km ( 7 mi) W of Templeton, CA
1.5 2005/10/01 00:56:30 36.051 -120.615 2.6 24 km ( 15 mi) NW of Parkfield, CA
1.7 2005/10/01 01:04:24 35.833 -120.378 7.6 9 km ( 6 mi) SSE of Parkfield, CA
2.0 2005/10/01 04:44:56 35.738 -121.048 1.1 15 km ( 9 mi) W of Lake Nacimiento, CA
1.7 2005/10/02 12:14:14 35.653 -121.086 3.8 9 km ( 6 mi) E of San Simeon, CA
2.8 2005/10/02 13:40:49 35.651 -121.087 2.4 9 km ( 6 mi) E of San Simeon, CA
4.4 2005/10/02 13:48:09 35.648 -121.104 4.5 8 km ( 5 mi) E of San Simeon, CA
2.6 2005/10/02 13:53:24 35.653 -121.082 5.1 10 km ( 6 mi) E of San Simeon, CA
3.8 2005/10/02 13:49:55 35.657 -121.077 3.5 10 km ( 6 mi) E of San Simeon, CA
2.1 2005/10/02 14:09:27 35.660 -121.084 7.0 10 km ( 6 mi) E of San Simeon, CA
2.0 2005/10/02 14:45:47 35.662 -121.092 0.7 9 km ( 6 mi) ENE of San Simeon, CA
2.5 2005/10/02 15:02:52 35.665 -121.062 9.3 12 km ( 7 mi) ENE of San Simeon, CA
2.5 2005/10/02 17:29:54 35.718 -121.290 0.0 12 km ( 8 mi) NW of San Simeon, CA
1.9 2005/10/02 18:00:45 35.660 -121.092 4.3 9 km ( 6 mi) ENE of San Simeon, CA
1.6 2005/10/02 18:13:41 35.659 -121.079 2.3 10 km ( 6 mi) E of San Simeon, CA
2.5 2005/10/02 19:03:03 35.661 -121.085 3.6 10 km ( 6 mi) ENE of San Simeon, CA
1.7 2005/10/02 19:10:34 35.659 -121.084 2.9 10 km ( 6 mi) E of San Simeon, CA
3.0 2005/10/02 21:11:26 35.657 -121.090 3.1 9 km ( 6 mi) E of San Simeon, CA
2.4 2005/10/02 21:26:33 35.654 -121.092 4.0 9 km ( 6 mi) E of San Simeon, CA
1.9 2005/10/03 05:39:50 35.660 -121.092 3.4 9 km ( 6 mi) ENE of San Simeon, CA
1.7 2005/10/03 16:41:49 35.658 -121.089 2.9 9 km ( 6 mi) E of San Simeon, CA
2.4 2005/10/04 11:05:15 35.872 -120.417 6.1 3 km ( 2 mi) SSE of Parkfield, CA
Sooooooo.... This are seems to be getting ready for another "Fort Tejon"
Thanks a lot but why you have allowed persons to be killed in Sumatra, Asia on December 26 2004 and in Muzaffarabad,Pakistan, Asia on October 8th 2005.If any person is interested in Earthquake Prediction on the globe to solve the problem can make querry to me on my mailling address - Awasthi_pra@yahoomail.com Thanks
Prabhakar Awasthi
Nice. Very nice.
But I like your guestbook the most.
Unfortunatelly there's too much spam in it.
Whenever Sun crosses any sign of Zodiac at Ujjain (India) then after 12 to 36 hours or
after 60 to 90 Hours Possibility of a major significant Earthquake ( Above 6 Richter scale) on the Globe is Maximum.
Dr.Prabhakar Kumar Awasthi
INDIA
Earthquake Prediction (Forecast of Time) A New Approach
Prabhakar Kumar Awasthi*
H.N.Singh**
Abstract
In this paper an attempt has been made for the forecast of time of earthquakes measuring on Richter scale 6 and above, on the Globe. For this purpose data of USGS and IMD have been used for earthquakes and for the crossing time of the Sun on a particular place, respectively. To avoid global differences in time, calculations are made according to coordinated Universal Time (UTC) so the results may be useful for the globe. A successful earthquake prediction of an individual Earthquake includes Date (Time), Place and its Magnitude, so here the emphasis have been given on its Date (Time), Magnitude and Methodology, opening a new avenue in this field. So we can simply say that whenever Sun crosses any sign of Zodiac at Ujjain (India) then after 12 to 36 hours or after 60 to 90 Hours Possibility of a major significant Earthquake on the Globe is Maximum.
Earthquake Prediction (Forecast of Time) A New Approach
Prabhakar Kumar Awasthi*
H.N.Singh**
Department of Geography*
Department of Physics**
R.S.S. (P.G.) College, Pilakhuwa,
Ghaziabad (U.P.), India.
(E-Mail- awasthi_pra@yahoo.com)
pawasthi@solar.Stanford.EDU
We have observed so many Earthquakes in last years. It inspired me to think in a different way. So we have made some rules regarding the prediction of Dates of significant Earthquakes. On this basis one can predict the date of significant Earthquakes on the Globe. It should be remembered that these are only the rules, not the principles. Here we will talk about only one rule. This rule is related to the Sun.
Rule-
Whenever Sun crosses any sign of Zodiac then on the same day the date of the earthquake can be predicted if earthquake does not occur on the same day then add two day more. It means the earthquake will occur on the third day including the date of crossing the sign of zodiac by the Sun.
Example-
On January 14,1995 the Sun had crossed the 9th sign which was Sagittarius and it came to the 10th sign which was Capricorn. On this basis we have decided that the earthquake will occur on January 14,1995, the same day. If it will not occur on January 14, 1995 then I will add two days more. It means 14 +2 =16 or third day including the date of crossing the sign. It also means January 16, 1995. So we were sure that the earthquake will occur either on January 14,1995 or on January 16,1995.According to the rule, on January 16,1995 a strong Earthquake hit Japan near the south coast of western Honshu. It was located on 34.06-degree north and 135.00 degree east. About 5502 persons lost their lives. Magnitude of this earthquake was 6.9. On the basis of this rule we have predicted so many dates of significant earthquakes, which later on proved to be true. A few instances are given below-
15-06-1999 Mexico Earthquake – The Sun crossed the sign on 15-06-1999. It crossed from 2nd sign (Taurus) to 3rd sign (Gemini). Earthquake hit the Mexico on the same day.
17-08-1999 Turkey Earthquake – The Sun crossed the sign on 17-08-1999. It crossed from 4th sign (Cancer) to 5th sign (Leo). Earthquake hit the Turkey on the same day.
17-10-1999 California Earthquake – The Sun crossed the sign on 17-10-1999. It crossed from 6th sign (Virgo) to 7th sign (Libra). Earthquake hit the California on the same day.
17-11-2000 New Britain Region Earthquake - The Sun crossed the sign on 15-11-2000. It crossed from 7th sign (Libra) to 8th sign (Scorpio). Earthquake hit the New Britain Region on the same day.
13-01-2001 El Salvador Earthquake - The Sun crossed the sign on 13-01-2001. It crossed from 9th sign (Sagittarius) to 10th sign (Capricorn). Earthquake hit the El Salvador on the same day.
Exception to the rule – Sometimes the dates of earthquake may vary. This variation may be of +- one day. We believe that this is due to influence of other planets.
18-06-2000 South Indian Ocean Earthquake – The Sun crossed the sign on 14-06-2000. It crossed from 2nd sign (Taurus) to 3rd sign (Gemini). Earthquake hit south Indian Ocean on 18-06-2000. But according to the rule it should be either on the 14-06-2000 (same day) or on 16-06-2000 (third day). According to the exception it should be one day sooner or later but here the delay was of five days. So in this instance the rule of the Sun does not looks appropriate. It requires another rule and we did so but we are not discussing it here.
Keeping all the things in mind in this paper we have emphasized only on the date (Time) so selecting only one parameter according to the above rule, we have taken the data from India Meteorological Department (IMD) for the transition of the Sun in different Zodiac signs. This data is based on central place Ujjain. Same as IMD for the Earthquakes, data of United State Geological Survey (USGS) have been taken to avoid clashes in time. Our firm belief is that: “ The Space is the key of a successful Earthquake Prediction.” The Planets are embedded in space. We can use these planets in the two ways –
As a Source of its triggering and
As an Instrument.
Here we have used the Sun as an instrument. For the analysis, data of the earthquakes have been taken from April 1993 up to December 2005. Our Findings are as follows-
Number of Earthquakes on the Globe from the crossing of the Sun in Zodiac signs (From April 1993 up to December 2005) selecting only first one earthquake each day.
Before one day Same Day Second Day Third Day Fourth Day
Total
Magnitude -7
And above 7 9 10 2 10
Total
Magnitude –
6 to 7 45 41 47 45 50
Number of Earthquakes (From April 1993 up to December 2005) Magnitude 6 and above at the interval of 6 hours selecting only first one Earthquake each day.
One Day Before Same Day Second Day Third Day Fourth Day
A B C D A B C D A B C D A B C D A B C D
15 18 07 12 15 09 16 10 19 16 04 17 13 08 15 11 17 14 21 08
------- * ----------- * ------------------- * --------- * ------------------------ *
-24-12 -6 + 6 +12 +36 +42 +54 +60 +90
When we make cluster It is found that between –24 to –12 hours, -6 to +6 hours, +42 to + 56 hours and between +60 to + 90 hours number of Earthquakes are Maximum.
While between – 12 to –6 hours, +6 to +12 hours, + 54 to +60 hours and +90 to + 96 hours number of Earthquakes are Minimum.
On the Same Day number of Earthquake is Maximum between 12 to18 hours.
On the Second Day number of earthquake is Maximum between 0 to 6 hours.
On the Third Day number of earthquake is Maximum between 12 to 18 hours.
On the fourth day number of earthquake is Maximum between 12 to 18 hours.
Special feature is that on the second day number of earthquake is Minimum between 12 to 18 hours. A nice gap that need a further study of planetary influence why it is so?
The most important thing is that our observations (without proper Data) through which we have made our rules are similar with the observation (with proper Data) because here we clearly find a gap of 12 hours.
When the Next Earthquake (According to the Sun) -
Whenever Sun crosses any sign of Zodiac at Ujjain (India) then after 12 to 36 hours or
after 60 to 90 Hours Possibility of a major significant Earthquake on the Globe is
Maximum.
Conclusion-
On the basis of this method any person can take a view that this date is very sensitive for an earthquake but for the perfection more work is required in this direction. Same as the Sun we can calculate other planets Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Rahu, Ketu, Uranus, Neptune, Pluto and Moon where the dates (Time) are similar there we can say that we are closer towards perfection.