A nuclear war between Pakistan and India would kill over a billion people just from starvation.
"An Assessment of the Extent of Projected Global Famine Resulting from Limited, Regional Nuclear War" by Dr Ira Helfand, an emergency medicine specialist from Massachusetts, projects "a total global death toll in the range of one billion from starvation alone."
So glad I do not live in one of the countries that would face massive starvation.
World grain stores are low and the planet would cool down.
Earlier studies have suggested that such a conflict would throw five million tonnes of black soot into the atmosphere, triggering a reduction of 1.25°C in the average temperature at the earth's surface for several years. As a result, the annual growing season in the world's most important grain-producing areas would shrink by between 10 and 20 days.
Helfand points out that the world is ill-prepared to cope with such a disaster. "Global grain stocks stand at 49 days, lower than at any point in the past five decades," he says. "These stocks would not provide any significant reserve in the event of a sharp decline in production. We would see hoarding on a global scale."
So if we implemented climate engineering projects to cool down the Earth by a similar amount we'd cause a lot of starvation.
Also, a bunch of small nukes would destroy a large fraction of the ozone layer.
Another study being unveiled at today's conference suggests that the smoke unleashed by 100, small, 15 kiloton nuclear warheads could destroy 30-40% of the world's ozone layer. This would kill off some food crops, according to the study's author, Brian Toon, an atmospheric scientist from the University of Colorado in Boulder, US.
I bet a lot of species would go extinct as well. Human hunger would lead to more hunting of animals.
So is it conceivable that India and Pakistan would ever duke it out with nuclear weapons?
By Randall Parker at 2007 October 03 04:44 PM Dangers Nuclear Warfare | TrackBacksounds like the nuclear winter scare rumor redux, and it probably is about as valid as the parent claim of apocalyptic consequences of a major nuclear war. Kearney ridiculed the climate claims it as Commie propaganda designed to subvert American military preparedness, see http://www.oism.org/nwss/s73p912.htm, and it is hard not to agree, especially since the consequences of such beliefs were just that. America has been busy for the last two decades dismantling its capability to fight and survive a world war in the face of the unabashed Russian/Chinese threat that by now is growing more and more explicit.
oops, the link to Kearney's discussion is http://www.oism.org/nwss/s73p912.htm
To those likely to start such a war it won't matter what the consequences would be or how many people would die. The decisions won't be made on facts but on beliefs and passions.
It is not sufficient that political leaders be responsible, the entire chain of command must do so.
With more nukes in more countries there will be more links in more chains of command. Links fail sooner or later.
The results of a India and Pakistan war today? The nuclear winter stuff probably wouldn't get quite that bad. But the political stress upon the world would be enormous and IMO would lead to something like Orwell's world of Nineteen Eighty Four.
Long before India and Pakistan start a fight, Islamic extremists will almost certainly come to power in Pakistan. This means that nearly 100 nukes will be given to Jihadist terrorists who will target Europe long before they attack Pakistan.
Thus it is important to do another computer simulation about how many Europeans would starve as a result of 100 nukes detonated over there. And by 2020, the some of the "mini" nukes owned by terrorists, might have a yield close to 1 megaton, not 15 kilotons.
The French have a lot of big nukes. A large section of their military are Muslim.
I don't think Muslims will try to nuke Europe wolf-dog they are already rapidly gaining power here without the need for that.
More likely the terrorists or rogue states will use them to nuke American bases in the middle east and central asia, if they can hide who is responsible.
Is the use of nukes most likely going to come from the Israel Iran war? either Iran builds a nuke and starts threatening the middle east, or Israel takes preemptive action which may spark a wider war.
A lot of people seem to say its inevitable that the extremists take control of pakistan after Musharaff is ousted but surely there is a fair chance of a civil war? Its a very big country, I can't see the extremists just moving in and taking over that easily.
The threat of nuclear war if Pakistan falls to the Hirabis is not from them striking Pakistan in a civil war, but from them striking India. There is also the threat of Indian pre-emption if it seems likely the Hirabis will get control of Pakistani nukes. In either of these cases, it will require a worst-case result to make for the effects described in the paper.
Indian pre-emption is a lesser threat, though, because Pakistan is West of India. There is a substantial chance that weather patterns can blow radiation from nuclear strikes on Pakistan into India. Given general West to East movement of weather, the Indians will be reluctant to risk it. Only if, at the critical time of an imminent Hirabi victory in a Pakistani internal struggle for power, there is a strong dry season monsoon, blowing out of the Himalayas towards the Arabian Sea, would India have any chance of avoiding the fallout from their own weapons, even assuming they hit all of the Pakistani arsenal in time to avoid retaliation.
A threat to Europe from smuggled Pakistani nukes would be secondary to the threat to the US, which is the world's current bulwark against the Hirabi Caliphate. Only if EU nations become a vital force in resisting the Hirabis would there be a chance of them being hit. Of course, if they do wake up, and oppose the imposition of a caliphate, then in the long-term that will decrease the threat as a whole substantially. Having waited so long to oppose those who would conquer them, Europeans will naturally run a risk before European power can be brought to bear, while they build up military and other potential in the midst of the current world-wide struggle.
Regards,
Tom Billings
Sounds like some research that Jerry B. Jenkins could have used to augment his crappy novels. At least, one can describe 3 of the 4 horseman (war, famine, death) vividly without invoking a supernatural explanation. One billion sounds like a satisfactory number to fulfill 1/4 number from Revelation 6:7-8 (remember that some of the world was raptured away).
Of course, I do not believe in the bunkum of dispensationalism.
Come now fellows! HellKaiserRyo is quite right. We should be ironic and satirical concerning the prospects for mass murder in the Islamic world and the rest of the world. Laugh it off, like the sophisticates we all are. Bunkum and all that, right? I quite agree.
The problem with 9/11 was that people got so serious for a while. It was as if we couldn't laugh about the whole thing and put it in its proper place. But now we can, so it's better. Like Ahmedinejad at Columbia. He said some far out things, but we know we can laugh about it. Do you really think he's going to kill all the Jews, destroy Israel? Silly bunkum. He's a politician just like Bush, only we can like Ahmedinejad because he hates Bush.
So laugh it up. Don't take things so seriously. Or we'll start laughing at you.
My intent wasn't to trivalize the possibility of such a disaster; instead, I wanted to point out that discussing the consequences of a nuclear war in depth would be much better than inane preaching.
Too bad La Haye and Jenkins don't know that.
Consider this, too http://www.samsonblinded.org/news/muslim-world/pakistan
President Obamination's new world order:
World economies will have been racked by inflation and recession, causing the United States to join with the European Union to save their economies, adopting the Euro. India and Pakistan will feel the economic pains worse due to their proximity to all the strife and turmoil in region. Then the Sixth Trumpet will blow, as described in the Bible's Book of Revelations; an army of 200 million will march into the Middle East (for oil and gold). This vacuum is created by the pull-out of US troops from Iraq by President Obamination. India and Pakistan may go nuclear and there would be the third of mankind killed off by as many as 10 - 24 Ground Bursts Nuclear Explosions, the type of detonation that would produce fallout, killing many more after the initial nuclear explosions. Just something to make you think about being prepared to meet your Maker, before the sounding of the seventh trumpet sound!
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