November 04, 2007
US Kidney Disease In 2020 To Be 60% Higher

An aging population is going to create far heavier cost burdens to treat a sicker population.

San Francisco, CA (Friday, October 26, 2007) Although estimates have been adjusted downward in light of the most recent data, researchers still predict sharp increases in the U.S. incidence and prevalence of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in the years ahead, according to a paper being presented at the American Society of Nephrology's 40th Annual Meeting and Scientific Exposition in San Francisco.

"The expected number of patients with ESRD in 2020 is almost 785,000, which is an increase of over 60 percent compared to 2005," comments Dr. David T. Gilbertson of the U.S. Renal Data System (USRDS) and the Minneapolis Medical Research Foundation, Minneapolis, Minn. Using data available through 2005, the study updates previous estimates based on data through 2000.

The development of tissue engineering technologies and stem cell therapies to repair failing organs will some day drastically reduce the cost of medical care. The sooner these treatments come the more we will save. Treatments that are not effective typically cost more than treatments that are effective. Degenerative diseases of old age that slowly kill people over a period of years are expense to treat. Growth of replacement organs or use of stem cell therapies to do repairs will cost less once those treatments become available.

Share |      Randall Parker, 2007 November 04 09:46 PM  Aging Population Problems

Nick said at November 5, 2007 10:14 AM:


COQ10 was found in recent, good quality controlled studies, to get humans off dialysis.

We have a 12 year old German Shepherd in kidney failure: after 3 months on COQ10, her test results (BUN and creatinine) have fallen from quite high levels to almost normal.

I suspect this is an important case of an orphan, unpatentable substance.

cancer_man said at November 5, 2007 11:32 PM:

Of course, by 2020, the cases will have dropped to about zero.

Randall Parker said at November 6, 2007 5:50 PM:


In 13 years? I hope so. Maybe. I'm having a hard time trying to figure out how fast microfluidics will accelerate the advance of biotech.

Given the right stem cell therapy or gene therapy curing kidney disease will become easy. But when will that happen? I have a hard time believing it'll take 30 years. But how much sooner than that?

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