The firm GenomeQuest has a blog, and on that blog they have a post, Implications of exponential growth of global whole genome sequencing capacity. In that post there are some bullet points with numbers. Here they are:
* 2001-2009: A Human Genome
* 2010: 1,000 Genomes – Learning the Ropes
* 2011: 50,000 Genomes – Clinical Flirtation
* 2012: 250,000 Genomes – Clinical Early Adoption
* 2013: 1 Million Genomes – Consumer Awareness
* 2014: 5 Million Genomes – Consumer Reality
* 2015-2020: 25 Million Genomes And Beyond – A Brave New World
In light of the many orders of magnitude drop in DNA sequencing costs we've already witnessed in the last 30 years I find these numbers plausible. The 2010s are going to be a period in which the functional significance of tens or hundreds of thousands of genetic variants become known and DNA sequencing becomes affordable for the middle class.
There many reasons to do genome sequencing. Not all these reasons involve clinical applications by health care providers, though most do.
I expect DNA sequencing of cancer cells will become routine. Knowledge about cancer genome mutations will be used to choose treatments. I would not be surprised if DNA sequencing data gets used to design antibodies to attack cancer cells without attacking normal cells.
Since a person can have cancer for months or years and since cancer cells constantly mutate I expect oncologists to track cancers by using repeated sequencing of many cancer cell samples from each patient. Once full genome DNA sequencing costs just a few hundred dollars the cost will become a small fraction of total cancer treatment costs. So I do not see money as an obstacle to this style of usage of sequencing machines.
|Share |||Randall Parker, 2010 July 17 10:29 PM Biotech Advance Rates|