Razib Khan points to a projection for the rate at which full human genome DNA sequencing will be done over the next 10 years.
The firm GenomeQuest has a blog, and on that blog they have a post, Implications of exponential growth of global whole genome sequencing capacity. In that post there are some bullet points with numbers. Here they are:
* 2001-2009: A Human Genome
* 2010: 1,000 Genomes – Learning the Ropes
* 2011: 50,000 Genomes – Clinical Flirtation
* 2012: 250,000 Genomes – Clinical Early Adoption
* 2013: 1 Million Genomes – Consumer Awareness
* 2014: 5 Million Genomes – Consumer Reality
* 2015-2020: 25 Million Genomes And Beyond – A Brave New World
In light of the many orders of magnitude drop in DNA sequencing costs we've already witnessed in the last 30 years I find these numbers plausible. The 2010s are going to be a period in which the functional significance of tens or hundreds of thousands of genetic variants become known and DNA sequencing becomes affordable for the middle class.
There many reasons to do genome sequencing. Not all these reasons involve clinical applications by health care providers, though most do.
I expect DNA sequencing of cancer cells will become routine. Knowledge about cancer genome mutations will be used to choose treatments. I would not be surprised if DNA sequencing data gets used to design antibodies to attack cancer cells without attacking normal cells.
Since a person can have cancer for months or years and since cancer cells constantly mutate I expect oncologists to track cancers by using repeated sequencing of many cancer cell samples from each patient. Once full genome DNA sequencing costs just a few hundred dollars the cost will become a small fraction of total cancer treatment costs. So I do not see money as an obstacle to this style of usage of sequencing machines.
Share | | Randall Parker, 2010 July 17 10:29 PM Biotech Advance Rates |
Some of the most useful information I've read in a long time.
BTW, the NYT has a new article on the excellent efforts to sequence the human microbiome (our bodies' community of microbes). http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/13/science/13micro.html
The cost of getting your genome completely analyzed was $99,500 last year.
It won't be necessary to do full sequences of tumors. Sequencing may not be needed at all, just whatever finds e.g. their unique antigens to tailor immune therapies.
Actually, to determine the causative mutations from the background, it's likely that you'll need to sequence both the cancer genome and the genome of the source tissue. And it's more likely that analysis of tumour subtype based upon causative lesions, as well as studying perturbed (dna damage repair, apoptosis, etc.) pathways is going to determine the appropriate therapy than some form of rational design of antibodies.