May 23, 2011
Facebook Peaked Already?
Razib Khan has been using Google Trends to watch the rise of Facebook and the fall of Myspace. Well, looks like Facebook finally hit a plateau. Well, that was a fast ride to a peak. He's not forecasting a Facebook decline. But not everyone wants to devote a substantial amount of their day to Facebook posting.
I found that on Razib's Twitter feed. That brings up a question: Has Twitter peaked yet? Facebook soared far above Twitter on Google Trends with about a 30:1 advantage if I read that page correctly. But looking at Twitter by itself still shows a strong up-trend, at least measured by search volume.
What might unseat Facebook or other current social media leaders: the shift to virtual reality. Or is there some other model of social interaction on the internet that can become the next hit even before virtual reality?
Also read Razib on why Paul Ewald thinks a lot of cancer is due to infection, especially due to sexual activity. Razib thinks some of the "cancer runs in families" story could be due to expressive kissing or sexual activity running in families due to upbringing and/or genes.
Now that everyone is on Facebook it is somewhat self-limiting. My left-wing friends (I'm right wing) used to post a lot more angry left-wing rants a few years ago. But now that their whole extended family is on Facebook there are social repercussions to calling all Republicans nazis and assorted epithets, since it means they just insulted their uncle or grandpa or cousin. I've noticed that Facebook has become more of a Christmas Card style interaction as people focus more on family, vacations, and other good news. The super partisan politico people still can't resist shoving their politics in their social network's face -- but those people are usually such aggressive jerks about their politics that they don't care who they offend -- the average person would rather not routinely insult half of their extended family, so they avoid controversial subjects like politics.
And the diminishing # of political things I see posted on Facebook are increasingly just pro-X instead of anti-Y. A few years ago I saw a lot more cursing and a lot more vitriol. But maybe that was just the left-wingers I know being a lot more vulgar when out of power than the right-wingers I know. I think it's the calming effect of knowing your aunt and grandma are reading.
Interesting, but one confounding factor: angry liberals are calmer now that a liberal president is in power. They claim to be angry now "because Obama is a right-winger," but once Republicans re-take the White House, their full shocked anger will return.
Ha! - So very very true...
My word I hope Facebook crashes and burns and dies a horrible death - it is actually worse than myspace as a social networking tool - and people are so enabling their own rampant exploitation.
As far as the cancer / infection thing - as someone with a background in this I have been following this closely - and like the author has said many main stream scientists have shown that several specific cases of this have been already verified. All I can say to this is Christianity FTW, yo!
(it seems likely that certain highly religious societies could be analyzed for cancer rates and compared against highly secular societies rates fairly easily)