2003 May 21 Wednesday
Europe Set For Prolonged Population Decline

Europe really is getting old.

It is estimated that by 2050, the number of people over 60 in Europe will have doubled to 40% of the total population, or 60% of the population of working age.

While this article is confused on this point the figures provided are for active (i.e. capable of working) population. The decline Europe's active population will be larger than the decline in the region's total population.

Its population declines from 331 million to 243, North America advances from 269 million to 355 million. Their big elephant is "Greater China" (including Taiwan) which sees its growth rate level out at 2.6 percent, ahead of North America's 2.3 percent, and far outpacing Europe's 1.1 percent.

Note that currently Europe has a larger total and active population than the United States and Canada. But at some point in the next 50 years Europe's working population will decline to a level below the current North American level while North America's working population will surpass Europe's current level.

For Ifri, Europe has two basic problems. The first is its dwindling population. From 2000 to 2050, the institute projects a decline in the EU's active population from 331 million to 243 million. Over the same period, the active populations of Greater China and South Asia move ahead, while the North American grouping rises from 269 million to 355 million.

A declining working population combined with rising working populations and more advancing populations elsewhere will shrink Europe's portion of the world economy to a little over half current levels.

By 2050, Europe's share of the world economy will only be 12 per cent against 22 per cent today.

Europe's population is going to shrink while the world as a whole grows.

Due to the dropping birth rate as well as the prolonged impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, the current Revision projects a lower population in 2050 than the 2000 Revision, namely, 8.9 billion instead of 9.3 billion. The European continent is the only region in the world whose population is set to decrease in the years to come, with a growth rate of -0.28 per cent.

Worldwide the elderly will grow as a percentage of total world population.

At the global level, the number of elderly people will grow from less than 1/2 a billion in 2000 to 1 1/2 billion in 2050 which as a share of the overall population is equal to an increase from 7% to 16%.

Of course these are all projections. Note that the world population project for 2050 was just cut by 400 million people which is about a 4 and a half percent decrease. That projection will no doubt be changed again. There are scientific and technological factors that could cause changes in population projections. Among those technological advances that could raise population growth:

  • Technological innovations that make it easier to raise children. Think technological advances that reduce housework, sophisticated tutor computers, more elaborate sensor systems for tracking the kids and warning of imminent dangers, and assorted other advances that unburden moms.
  • Biotech advances that will raise fertility rates for women in their 30s, 40s, 50s, and later.
  • The ability to genetically engineer offspring will reduce the uncertainty of the outcome and therefore reduce reluctance. If one can be guaranteed a very bright child with an innately happy and easy disposition then more will opt for children.
  • Dramatic breakthrus in life extension and youthful rejuvenation technologies.

Of course, global thermonuclear war, a bioengineered plague, or out-of-control nanoreplicators could all greatly reduce or perhaps even wipe out the human population. There are no guarantees in this life. But while fertility has been declining for some time due to the effects of technological advances on human society it is possible that some coming technologies will eventually begin to exert pro-fertility influences.

By Randall Parker    2003 May 21 02:14 PM   Entry Permalink | Comments ( 0 )
2003 March 14 Friday
World Population May Shrink Later In 21st Century

Ben Wattenberg says UN demographers have finally accepted the extent of declining birth rates.

Now, in a new report, United Nations demographers have bowed to reality and changed this standard 2.1 assumption. For the last five years they have been examining one of the most momentous trends in world history: the startling decline in fertility rates over the last several decades. In the United Nations' most recent population report, the fertility rate is assumed to be 1.85, not 2.1. This will lead, later in this century, to global population decline.

Wattenberg and the UN demographers are almost certainly wrong in predicting a decline in the human population. If robots do not take over and if nanotech replicators do not run amuck and wipe us out then the human population will increase even late in the 21st century. Why? Aging rejuvenation therapies will cause a radical increase in life expectancy.

Increased life expectancy will increase the population in two ways. The most obvious is of course that people who live longer will not cause a population decline by dying off. The less obvious cause is that aging rejuvenation therapy will allow female reproductive organs to stay functional for a longer period of time. Women will be able to have children in their 50s, 60s, and later. Gene therapies will help repair aging cells and cell therapies will replace aging stem cell reservoirs. Also, the development of the ability to grow new organs will eventually include the ability to grow new ovaries and other female reproductive organs.

Another future contributing factor to the growth in human population will be the development of artificial wombs This will increase the fertility rate even among younger women who are too busy with their careers to want to be slowed up by a pregnancy. Consider the Hollywood actresses who can't get pregnant without putting their careers on hold. This is especially true for TV actresses who star in their shows. Filming goes on for too large a portion of the year to allow a pregnancy to happen. When artificial wombs become reliable many will opt instead to have their babies grown from their own cells but not in their own bodies. An artifiical womb will be more trustworthy than a surrogate mother because women won't have to worry about the artificial womb doing drugs, drinking alcohol, smoking, eating poorly, or getting an infection.

Natural selection is also going to eventually cause reproduction rates to rise. In a study of twins in Australia evidence was found for natural selection for genetically influenced traits that increase fertility.

University-educated women have 35% lower fitness than those with less than seven years education, and Roman Catholic women have about 20% higher fitness than those of other religions. Although these differences were significant, education and religion only accounted for 2% and 1% of variance in fitness, respectively. Using structural equation modeling, we reveal significant genetic influences for all three life-history traits, with heritability estimates of 0.50, 0.23, and 0.45, respectively. However, strong genetic covariation with reproductive fitness could only be demonstrated for age at first reproduction, with much weaker covariation for age at menopause and no significant covariation for age at menarche. Selection may, therefore, lead to the evolution of earlier age at first reproduction in this population.

Current highly visible trends are useful for predicting the future one or two decades in advance. But the further out a prediction is made the more other factors need to considered. Natural selection happens more slowly than changes caused by industrialization. But natural selection does happen and it is exerting selective pressure that is changing the behavioral and other characteristics of humans. At the same, the ways in which technology is changing society today are not the only ways technology will reshape human society tomorrow.

The two biggest wild cards that make future prediction extremely difficult for the 21st century will be the development of machine intelligence and the development of genetic engineering techniques for boosting human intelligence. These two developments will cause such huge changes in human society that predictions of demographers about human reproductive patterns 50 or 100 years from now are almost certainly very far from what will really happen.

It is still possible that the human population on Earth will decrease by the end of the 21st century. But it is unlikely to do so as a result of trends that demographers can now measure. Humans could migrate off planet in large numbers when space flight becomes widely affordable. Or a world government, responding to the development of biotechnologies that can rejuvenate and dramatically extend life, could enforce strict reproductive limits in order to prevent a rise in population. Or perhaps humans may all become part of a Borg mind that suppresses reproductive instincts in the individual nodes. Or a virus could be released into the population that does genetic alternations that in turn cause cognitive changes in human minds that make child-rearing unappealing. There are a lot of reasons human population could rise or fall in the latter part of the 21st century. The most important factors that will determine the outcome depend on technological developments that will happen as the century progresses. We can not know with sufficient precision how all these changes will play out. Therefore predictions of world population changes become increasingly inaccurate the further out the predictions are made.

By Randall Parker    2003 March 14 09:09 AM   Entry Permalink | Comments ( 2 )
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